| The National Federation of Independent Business has taken a cautious approach to examining the business climate once again. The optimism index they’ve developed rose for the second month in a row ending May with a rating of 94.4. This is a strong increase from April’s rating of 92.1, which was up from March’s 89.5. The 1.3 dip from February to March was the cause of some pessimism among the NFIB’s economists, and they remain skeptical that recent growth in small business optimism is a lasting trend. One concern is that the reading is still historically low: “…6 points below the pre-2008 average and 13 points below the peak for the expansion…” Another is that job creation has not yet replaced the jobs lost in the recession. My hope is that they are being overly cautious. The NFIB notes that May’s 94.4 is the highest the index has been in a year (last May was also 94.4), but the short term of the trend makes it less reliable. I believe that this trend may be part of a slightly larger one that is more significant over the lifetime of the recession. For about 80% of months since October 2010, each month has had a rating above average for that month in previous years. That is to say, for any month in 2011, 2012, or 2013, it was likely better than that month in 2008, 2009, or 2010. Examining the patterns of monthly change in the optimism index over the same time period yields similarly encouraging statistics. Once again, for about 80% of months since October 2010, each month had either standard change (within half a point of the average for that month any given year) or was significantly above average. That’s not to say there was no decrease in the index. For example, March, June, and July have seen decreases in the index every year since 2008, but June 2012 is the only one of those months since 2011 to see a drop that was significantly below average. In short, the most pessimistic times are behind us, and optimism has been generally growing for a few years. The most significant outlying point of data is the 5.6 point plummet of November 2012. That was the worst drop in the entire data set with only one other month anything like it: October ’08 with 5.4 point drop in optimism. However, it would seem that the member businesses of the NFIB are as optimistic now as they were a year ago. Instead of coasting along like the 2011-2012 gentle climb from 92 in November to 94.4 in May, 2012-2013 showed huge progress from 87.5 in November to that same 94.4 in May. Perhaps this is just a correction from an overreaction to the election as people find they may be able to continue business as usual. On the other hand, this might be an accelerated time of growth at the end of what may be a trend heading out of the recession. A great deal of the more specific data from the NFIB shows that some figures like sales have been exceeding expectations. It really does not bode well that the percent of member firms borrowing money is on the low end in recent months, but then it seems that those who are borrowing have found it easier to do so. Once again, my assertion is that whichever businesses take action now and look to expand will find themselves ahead of their competitors who catch interests rates a little higher for coming later. The report may be found here: http://www.nfib.com/Portals/0/PDF/sbet/sbet201306.pdf NFIB Small Business Economic Trends June 2013 © NFIB ResearchFoundation. ISBS #0940791-24-2. Chief Economist William C. Dunkelberg and Senior Policy Analyst Holly Wade are responsible for the report. Business should be more than just about money and competition. At least half of our waking hours are devoted to our work, and for those of us running small businesses, the lion’s share of the day goes into our business. Shouldn’t something in which we invest so much of our lives be an expression of ourselves instead of just a means to an end? I’ve done my best for years to conduct business in an honest fashion. When I’m looking to hire someone, I try to get to know that person a little first in the hopes that I’ll have business associates who think the way I do. I started Clear Financial Solutions so that I could help businesses do more of what they do well instead of just trying to turn 90 cents into a dollar. I’m glad to say that the people I work with are also concerned with getting the job done instead of just billing hours. Together, we work to cross the t’s and dot the i’s as efficiently and cost-effectively as possible so that our clients can focus on conducting business. There are far too many stories in the news about fraudulent accounting and embezzlement. I read about one accountant a few months ago who was fired because he refused to lie to auditors about inappropriate expenses. I admire his integrity; it’s so sad that this is how he was forced to show it. I’m thankful that we at CFS get to exercise integrity on a regular basis. The hours billed are real hours that were spent focused on you, the client, by myself or someone who answers directly to me. If there’s ever a question about an invoice, I am always available to sit down and clarify the work we performed and the time it took. That’s accounting with accountability. | Get Your Free Sample Report today! | Discover the value of KPI reports and how they help your business grow and become more profitable and network with other great business owners. Come to our Complimentary Lunch & Learn on Thursday, August 15th from noon to 1 pm. RSVP by clicking on the image below 
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